Falkirk faces a predicament - the population is growing
and the provision of new housing isn’t keeping up. With the average age of a Falkirk
person being 41.0 years (compared to the national average of 40.4 years of
age), the population of Falkirk is growing at an alarming rate. This is due to
an amalgamation of longer life expectancy, a fairly high birth rate (compared
to previous decades) and net immigration, all of which contribute to housing
shortages and burgeoning house prices.
And the population is going to continue to
increase. Using data provided by the
National Records of Scotland, I forecast that the Falkirk population will grow
as follows:
2016
population 130,663
2021
population 133,308
2026
population 136,102
2031
population 138,552
2036
population 140,326
The normal ratio of people to property is 2 to 1 in the
UK, which therefore means that we need just over 9,600 additional new
properties to be built in Falkirk over the next 20 years.
Whilst focusing on population growth does not tackle the
housing crisis in the short term in Falkirk, it has a fundamental role to
play in long-term housing development and strategy in the town. The rise of Falkirk
property values over the last eight years since the credit crunch is primarily
a result of a lack of properties coming onto the market, a lack of new
properties being built in the town and rising demand (especially from landlords
looking to buy property to rent them out to the growing number of people
wanting to live in Falkirk but can’t buy or rent from the Council).
Although many are talking about the need to improve
supply (ie the building of new properties), the issue of accumulative demand
from population growth is often overlooked. Nationally, the proportion of 25-34
year olds who own their own home has dropped dramatically from 66.7% in 1987 to
43.8% in 2014, whilst 78.2% of over 65’s own their own home. Longer life
expectancies mean houses remain in the same hands for longer.
In the short to medium term, demand for a roof over
one’s head will continue to grow in Falkirk (and Scotland as a whole). In the
short term, that demand can only be met from the private rental sector (which
is good news for homeowners and landlords alike as that keeps house prices
higher).
In the long term though, local and national Government
and the UK population as a whole, need to realise these additional people over
the next 20 years need to live somewhere. Only once this issue starts to get
addressed, in terms of extra properties being built in a sustainable and
environmentally friendly way, can we all help create a socially ecological
prosperous future for everyone.
If you want to discuss any property matters, come and
see me for a chat - my office is at 6 Vicar Street, Falkirk. Alternatively, you can me on news@thekeyplace.co.uk or call me on 01324 469840.
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