To buy or sell in the Falkirk property market? That is the question

One of my landlords from Larbert rang me last week, after he had spoken to a friend of his. They were discussing the Falkirk property market and both could not make their mind up if it was time to either sell or buy property. If you read the newspapers and the landlord forums on the internet, there is a good slice of doom and gloom, especially with Brexit, the general uncertainty in the world economic situation, changes in the taxation towards landlords, the increasing legislation affecting the sector etc. 

I would admit, there are certain landlords in Falkirk who have over exposed themselves in the last few years with high percentage loan to value mortgages. Those mortgages, with their current (yet artificially) low interest rates, will start to suffer, as their modest monthly positive cash flow/profit (ie income (rent) less costs (mortgage, fees, tax)) will become negative when the tax and mortgage rates rise.

It appears to me these landlords seem to have treated the Falkirk Buy to Let market as a sure bet and have not approached this as a business and, as a result, they will suffer as they thought "Buy a house - rent it out so it covers the mortgage and make a few quid on top".  These are the people who will be thinking twice. I see opportunity everywhere and won't be stopping, I am here to stay. It’s going to be an exciting year.

Gone are the days when you could buy any old house in Falkirk and it would make money.  Yes, in the past, anything in Falkirk that had four walls and a roof would make you money because since WW2, property prices doubled every seven years years… it was like printing money – but not anymore.

True, since January 1999, the average price paid for a Falkirk terraced house has risen from £30,639 to today’s current average of £109,278 in the town, an impressive rise of 256.7% and semi-detached houses have risen in the same time frame, from £36,892 to £146,859, an even better rise of 298.1%. 

However, look back to 2009, and in that year, the average terraced house was selling for £81,760 meaning our Falkirk landlord would have seen a 33.7% rise and, interestingly, the semi-detached house owner would also have seen an increase of 33.7% as they were selling for on average £146,859 .... not bad until you consider inflation.

Since 2009, inflation, ie the cost of living, has increased by 31%. That means to retain its value, a Falkirk semi-detached house bought for £110,655 in 2009 would need to be worth £144,958 today to counter the impact of inflation. Therefore, our average semi-detached house landlord has only seen a marginal increase of 2.7% (ie 33.7% less 31% inflation) over these 10 years ie 0.27% per annum.

The reality is that in the period since around 2009 we haven’t seen anything like the average capital growth in property we have seen in the past largely as a result of the ongoing effects of the economic crash in 2009 and it’s not predicted to grow at the rates it has previously done either. So it is high time anyone considering investing in property stopped believing the hype and did some serious research using independent investment expertise.  You can still make money by buying the right Falkirk property at the right price and finding the right tenant. However, remember, investing in Falkirk property is not only about capital growth, but also about the yield (the return from the rent). It’s also about having a balanced property portfolio that will match what you want from your investment – and what is a ‘balanced property portfolio’?

If you would like to talk to me about your balanced property portfolio, please call me on 01324 469840, email me at robert@thekeyplace.co.uk or pop into the office at 6 Vicasr Street, Falkirk for a chat – the coffee is always on.

www.thekeyplace.co.uk

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